Task Force on Global Warming

Executive Order 191

Members

Task Force Activities

Work Groups

Technical Advisory Group

Modeling Process

Update Notification

Governor's Task Force on Global Warming
Modeling Process

In order to meet its obligations in a complete and professional manner, the Task Force elected to conduct a modeling exercise to estimate the potential greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions and economic impacts resulting from proposed policies.

Because of the complexity of this exercise, the extended nature of the task and because this information crosses the organizational lines of the Global Warming Task Force website, this page has been created to host materials specifically related to the modeling process.

The Policy Templates form the foundation of the modeling process. The status of the Templates is captured in this Summary Matrix [PDF 81KB]. PLEASE NOTE: This is a static document which summarizes and captures the status of the policy templates at a given point in time. It is likely to be revised heavily. While it will be updated regularly, please reference the Policy Templates page for the most recent information.

Background on Modeling

These presentations were given to the Task Force on September 20, 2007

Reference Case

The first step in the modeling process is developing a "Reference Case." The Reference Case is a projection of how Wisconsin’s economy, energy use and GHG emissions may develop in the future, given current policies and trends and absent any new GHG reduction policies. It will be used by the Task Force as a standardized point of comparison to estimate and evaluate the combined impacts of the policies developed by the Work Groups on GHG emissions, jobs and Wisconsin’s economy, including energy costs.

ICF International is performing this task using the ENERGY2020 model, a multi-sector model that provides state specific output data on energy and emissions. It incorporates a macroeconomic forecast (Regional Economic Model, Inc. - REMI) of the state supplied by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation. Winrock International is evaluating GHG sources and sinks in the forestry and agriculture sector, areas of important potential in Wisconsin.

The Technical Advisory Group (TAG) is working diligently to be sure that the data used for these purposes is as Wisconsin-specific as reasonably possible and that the assumptions employed are reasonable. The detailed accounting of all underlying data sources and assumptions developed by the TAG for the Reference Case will be posted here.

The Reference Case is very sensitive to the assumptions used and is not presented as an accurate prediction of the future. Instead, it is a projection, based on facts as we know them today, that is reasonable for use in evaluating and recommending policies to meet the requirements of Executive Order 191.

Reference Case Materials:

Policy Analysis

The Task Force is now receiving results from the modeling process. In order to summarize which policies are being modeled, and how they are being modeled, the Technical Advisory Group has created a Summary of Policy Scenarios to be Modeled [PDF 27KB].

Modeling Results:

Memos:

Last Revised: Friday August 01 2008