Karner Blue Butterfly Emergence Model

The DNR has partnered with the University of Wisconsin - Department of Forestry and Wildlife Ecology to develop a useful tool for HCP partners and DNR property managers. The Karner Blue Butterfly emergence model uses climate software to track weather patterns and calculate degree days to predict when Karner blues will begin to fly, and when the peak flight is occurring. At each station, degree days are accumulated using near real-time data of minimum and maximum temperature for the current year up to the date indicated. Beyond this date, the model uses mean minimum and maximum temperatures calculated from historic weather data for the climate normal period of 1971-2000. When real-time data is missing for a given day, the calculated mean is also used. The accuracy of the model has not been validated, and will be tested throughout this year.A similar methodology has shown predictions to be within an average of 5 days of the actual dates.

We will be testing and improving this tool throughout the year. If you have any suggestions, observations, or questions that would help us validate this system please let us know by sending an e-mail. Thank You!